Round 4 | Greenhorns
Round 3 is another exciting week in the world of greenhorns; with all the kids from Adelaide, North Melbourne and Gold Coast on the bubble. If you held off on trading in E.Curnow or T.Liberatore last week, only to sit back and watch your rookies spud it up over the weekend, now is your last chance to jump on the last batch of rookies before their first price rise.
Defenders
Shaun McKernan [ADE] $110,200 (Scored: 98, 41 BE: -66) looked great in his first game of the year but many will have cooled on him after his performance against Freo. With Walker and Tippett already locks in the team up forward I think Adelaide are only keeping McKernan in their side for ruck coverage until Sam Jacobs is healthy. He’s also a young key position player which will see him lack consistency this year so in my opinion there are better options out there. One final factor to consider, though, is that he’s available as both a defender and a forward which could make him a handy pairing with someone like Grundy or Rob Murphy.
Matthew Watson [CAR] $103,600 (Scored: 71, 58 BE: -60) is absolutely enormous for an eighteen year old tipping the scales at 101kg. He’s looked good in his two games so far with his foot skills being a highlight. I can’t see him being a massive scorer with most of the rebounding work falling to the more experienced hands at Carlton and I am a bit worried that Bower’s return to the team might jeopardise Watson’s job security. They did give him the job on Cloke last week, though, so I guess they rate him quite highly down at Princess Park.
Brodie Smith [ADE] $123,600 (Scored: 48, 86 BE: -52) is almost the exact opposite of McKernan having started as the sub against Hawthorn in Round 1 but playing a blinder on the weekend. With Adelaide’s current injury list I’d say his spot in the side is fairly safe and if he can string a few good games together he could be quite a nice earner. The threat of the substitute bib is still a worry though so I’d say he’s only worth trading in if you’ve got a non-playing rookie on your bench.
Robbie Tarrant [NTH] $184,900 (Scored: 119, 49 BE: -45) had a great first game this season but I expect his scoring to be more like it was in game 2 going forward. For this reason I don’t think the extra cash is worth it so look to one of the cheaper options if you need a rookie for your backline.
Danny Stanley [GCS] $117,700 (Scored: 61, 58 BE: -45) has been used off the half-forward line in both his games this year, kicking a total of 3 goals so far. He doesn’t win a whole lot of possessions but as one of the few mature aged players in the Suns’ team I’d say his job security is fairly strong. Probably not worth trading into your team given his low score ceiling but those that already have him should sit tight.
Sebastian Tape [GCS] $128,600 (Scored: 47, 42 BE: -3) looks like he could develop into quite a good footballer but I don’t think he’ll be much of a scorer in his first year. Seems to have a strong defensive focus to his game and I think the Suns will rely on some of their more experienced defenders to provide the rebound out of defense. With Josh Toy being dropped after his debut game in Round 2 I’d say his job security might also come into question in the upcoming weeks.
Karmichael Hunt [GCS] $117,700 (Scored: 25, 41 BE: 12) looks absolutely lost out on the field but I guess he did manage to negate Jarrad Grant fairly effectively against the Dogs. Doesn’t win enough of the football to be a good scorer and when he does he makes guys like Travis Colyer and Mark Blake look like Brownlow medalists. His job security is one thing that has me stumped though – on form he should be playing in the reserves but given the marketing pull he has the team has a financial incentive to keep playing him. Either way I wouldn’t advise trading ‘K’ into your team this week.
Andy Otten [ADE] $185,100 (Scored: 67, 44 BE: 12) was quite a popular pick over pre-season with most of us jumping ship after Neil Craig’s “ideal substitute” comments. He’s yet to see any action as a sub but I fear that this won’t remain the case for the whole season. As with Smith, Otten’s job security has been helped by the number of injuries at the Crows this year but after seeing his scoring for two games I don’t think he’s worth the extra cash. The recent injury to Phil Davis also means he’ll be forced to handle more defensive responsibilities in the upcoming weeks.
Alik Magin [GCS] $103,600 (Scored: 25, 23 BE: 22) has been a poor scorer in both his games – though it is worth mentioning he started as the sub last week. He might even struggle to hit his breakeven this week which just about sums him up. I can’t see any drastic changes in his scoring in the immediate future so I’d look elsewhere if you’re in need of a backline rookie.
And the round 3 debutants…
Michael Coad [GCS] $123,700 – 84SC
Dylan Grimes [RIC] $111,900 – 56SC
Alex Johnson [SYD] $103,600 – 50SC
Midfielders
Daniel Harris [GCS] $125,700 (Scored: 109, 58 BE: -82) was a very popular pick to start the year and he didn’t disappoint in his first game hitting the ton. He was kept a fair bit quieter against the Dogs with only 16 disposals (he had 30 against Carlton) but I wouldn’t be too worried about that. Someone needs to win the inside ball for the Suns and I’d be surprised if Harris doesn’t end up with one of the biggest increases in value in the league.
Trent McKenzie [GCS] $110,200 (Scored: 67, 46 BE: -39) has done alright without setting the world on fire. If you desperately need a midfield rookie he should do okay but I wouldn’t go trading guys already playing such as Bewick or Irons out for him. My feeling is that Guy McKenna will be keen to get games into a lot of his youngsters this year so unfortunately McKenzie might be forced back to the reserves for a few games this year.
Dion Prestia [GCS] $148,600 (Scored: 55, 77 BE: -32) has looked quite good in his opening two games sharing his time between half forward and the midfield. He’s a good runner and uses the ball quite well but what’s been surprising to me considering his size is his marking ability – he took 9 against the Dogs. Looks like he should be getting regular games in the seniors this year and as a MPP midfielder/forward he could provide your team with some handy flexiblity to get through the upcoming multi-bye rounds.
David Swallow [GCS] $188,600 (Scored: 70, 72 BE: -15) hasn’t had a massive game yet but my guess is that it shouldn’t be far off. He’s a great user of the football and he has one of the most AFL-ready bodies I’ve seen for an eighteen year old. His job security is also great given the number of less talented youngsters alongside him in the team but if you’re looking to trade Swallow in this week I’d say Ed Curnow might be a better option. His job security isn’t anywhere near as strong but he has proven his ability to score highly and he should rocket in price over the next few weeks.
Harley Bennell [GCS] $183,600 (Scored: 65, 65 BE: -7) has been used mainly in the forwardline and given the thumpings Gold Coast have been receiving it’s no surprise his scoring has been so low. I think he has the talent to push up into the midfield but I fear we won’t see much of that until later in the season. At his current price tag there are definitely rookies out there that present better value.
Shaun Atley [NTH] $108,600 (Scored: 39, 34 BE: 0) didn’t set the world on fire in either of his opening two games, finishing with 13 possessions in each. I haven’t had a chance to see North play yet this year but from what I’ve heard he seems to be a bit undersized to make much of an impact in the AFL just yet. The club obviously rate him given they’re playing him in the seniors from the start – and this should translate into good job security but with his inability to produce good scores he’s probably not someone to be trading into your team.
Allen Christensen [GEE] $110,200 (Scored: 30, 25 BE: 19) has looked pretty good in his first two games but unfortunately he’s been forced to start as the sub on both occasions. Chris Scott seems to have committed to getting some games into Geelong’s youth but with the team still looking like flag contenders at this stage I don’t think he’ll want too many in the side at once. This has me worried that Christensen won’t be able to lock down a permanent role in the team and with his history of starting as a sub he doesn’t look a great option in my eyes.
And the round 3 debutants…
Maverick Weller [GCS] $110,200 – 34SC
Alistair Smith [STK] $110,200 – 50SC
Jared Polec [BRL] $168,600 – 53SC
Rucks
Zac Smith [GCS] $117,700 (Scored: 84, 94 BE: -99) has finally given me a chance to write about a ruckman. Smith has had relatively modest stats in each of his first two games (Round 1: 14 hitouts and 17 possessions, Round 2: 18 hitouts and 10 possessions) but has translated them into some nice scores. I don’t think his job security was ever an issue but with Josh Fraser going down his spot in the team couldn’t be much safer. If you don’t have a playing rookie on your ruck bench and didn’t start Petrie at R3 then bringing in Smith this week should be a priority. You don’t want to be coping a donut when your guys on field have their byes.
And the round 3 debutants…
Daniel Gorringe [GCS] $143,600 – 49SC
Forwards
Shaun McKernan [ADE] $110,200 (Scored: 98, 41 BE: -65) DEF/FWD MPP – already covered above.
Cameron Richardson [NTH] $110,200 (Scored: 69, 43 BE: -38) the mature-aged recruit has looked good running off the half-back line in his two games so far, finishing with 17 possessions in each. His scoring wasn’t great in Round 2 but 4 free-kicks against can probably be blamed for that. The pleasing thing about Richardson is that he seems to fit well into North’s structures and for this reason he should maintain good job security for the year. My opinion is that his scoring will improve as he plays more games and becomes more familiar with the team’s game plan so if you’re in need of a forwardline rookie this week Richardson could be your man.
Brandon Matera [GCS] $110,200 (Scored: 64, 44 BE: -34) has been used as a small forward in both games and as is expected from players in that role he’s returned quite modest scores. He has managed to kick a goal in both matches, however, and given the forwardline is the weakest part of the ground for the Suns I’d expect him to stay in the team for the immediate future. Hopefully he can kick a bag at some stage in the year and reach a price that makes a downgrade trade worthwhile.
Jayden Pitt [FRE] $103,600 (Scored: 47, 56 BE: -33) doesn’t seem to be worth spending much time on. Has already been dropped once after his debut game so his job security is obviously fairly weak. Also doesn’t look to be a great scorer so I’d say you’d be throwing away a trade bringing this guy into your team.
Dion Prestia [GCS] $148,600 (Scored: 55, 77 BE: -32) MID/FWD MPP – already covered above.
Charlie Dixon [GCS] $110,200 (Scored: 43, 22 BE: 9) has undeniable potential but won’t be a good scorer for at least another couple of seasons. He showed great attack on the ball in the Suns first game but against the Dogs last weeks his hands really let him down. Will have to deal with the opposition’s number one defender most weeks and as a result won’t make much of an impact as a SuperCoacher.
And the round 3 debutants…
Alex Johnson [SYD] $103,600 – 50SC
Post your rookie related trade queries in the comments below or simply hit Faz up with your comments for his great piece on greenhorns. And, if you’re interested in submitting an article to YSCC, you can e-mail your article or make an enquiry to admin@yscc.com.au.
Just wondering if you had one small oversight?
I have Tom Bellchambers in my team, and after a great game against the Saints, he has a breakeven of -56.
Not great job security due to Hille’s imminent return, but if he can hold his place for at least this week he will shoot up in price.
Yea, good point Sovereign – I completely forgot about Belch. I’ve been very impressed of what I’ve seen of him this season. He looks to have added some much needed bulk to his body and as a result he’s been doing a lot better in the ruck contests.
As you mentioned his job security isn’t great but he did manage to keep Hille out of the side this week (Hille’s named as an emergency). I’d say his price tag makes him a bit expensive to be trading into your team but well done on starting the year with him – you could make up some nice ground on the rest of the competition if he can out-score Zac Smith when Sandilands and Cox have their byes.
Great work faz, I have solid rookies in all positions, no major problem on field either (knights would be my weakest link). When should I make my first downgrade / upgrade?
Not too sure to be honest. I’d say most teams will start trading fairly aggressively once the multi-bye rounds are finished (after Round 6). If you’re team is doing well for now I’d say sit tight and wait for another couple of price changes so you can maximise the value of your rookies.
another fantastic article!
TEAM SHEETS UPDATE
Out: Matthew Watson [CAR], Allen Christensen [GEE], Jarrod Irons [PTA] and Harley Bennell [GCS]
In: Josh Toy [GCS]
Debutants: Luke Thompson [ADE], Luke Russell [GCS] and Matt Shaw [GCS]
Extended Bench: Hayden Jolly [GCS] (NEW), Jack Hutchins [GCS] (NEW), Maverick Weller [GCS], Alik Magin [GCS], Trent McKenzie [GCS], Dion Prestia [GCS], Stefan Martin [MEL], James Strauss [MEL], Nick Lower [FRE], Shaun Atley [NTH] and Cameron Pederson [NTH]
No podcast this week?